Saturday, Jul 06, 2019 at 11:46
There's at least four things stopping the full EV revolution arriving overnight.
One is, the enormous demand for lithium batteries, if the majority of vehicles became EV's - which just cannot be met, by current production facilities.
It takes years to plan and build and put into production, giga-factories with the ability to churn out the quantity of batteries needed.
These batteries are complex, require top-level QC, and constant build system tests and checks - and they take extended time to construct.
There's no rapid-fire, 1000-a-minute, mass-production levels for these things.
Two is, there's a need to improve battery energy density. Lithium battery energy density is good enough to start the EV revolution, but they still lag badly in energy density compared to fossil fuels.
Three is, the charging network is not in place. It's bad enough queuing up for petrol on Cheap Mondays, and waiting for 10-15 mins to reach a bowser - but can you imagine the queues when everyone has an EV with a flat battery, and it takes 30-45 mins to recharge it??
It will need service stations to enter into arrangements with shopper carparks, to utilise large available shopper
parking areas, to install a charger in each bay.
No current fossil fuel servo will have enough area available to be able to recharge any more than a couple of dozen vehicles.
Yes, you can recharge at
home - but that limits your travel movements to a relatively small radius from your
home.
Publically-accessible chargers will be needed - everywhere. The idea the English inventor came up with, a charger in every street light pole, has merit.
These charger arrangements will still need addressing as regards planning, cost structures, and installation.
I see nothing currently being done in these areas - this country-wide charging network arrangement will suddenly fall from the sky onto councils and other planning bodies, and companies and retailers - and they will be scurrying to try and adopt the huge changes needed, and determine the costs and cost recoveries.
Four is, hybrids are going to play a very large fill-in role, in the vehicle mix, in the next 10-15 years.
There is no way that full EV's will have the capability to meet long-distance touring, and heavy towing requirements, with current technology.
But the current hybrids are very good, and can only get better.
I can see there will be a huge divide in the vehicle market in 10-15 years - the cities will become the
home of EV's, with hardly a fossil-fuel vehicle to be seen, and the country areas will still be
home to the "outdated, obsolete" fossil-fuel vehicles, which will still be necessary for most country travel tasks.
By far the greatest hurdle that current EV's must overcome, is the simple economics of current EV offerings.
Paying double to acquire an EV, just to save $1500-2000 a year on fossil-fuel purchases, still makes no sense.
Cheers, Ron.
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